http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/File ... future.pdf
10 July 2014
Bosnia poses little risk of deadly conflict, but after billions of dollars in foreign aid and intrusive international administration and despite a supportive European neighbourhood, it is slowly spiralling toward disintegration.. Bosnia’s leaders, with international support, must begin an urgent search for a new constitutional foundation.. The heart of the problem is in Annex 4 to the Dayton Peace Agreement. It defines BiH as a state of two entities, in effect but not explicitly federal, but also the state of three constituent peoples (Bosniaks, Croats, Serbs), and yet, simultaneously, of all citizens. A suffocating layer of ethnic quotas has been added, providing sinecures for officials increasingly remote from the communities they represent. The tensions created by constitutional schizophrenia are pushing BiH to the breaking point. A new design is needed: a normal federation, territorially defined, without a special role for constituent peoples, but responsive to the interests of its three communities and the rights of all citizens.. BiH is home to three political communities: those primarily loyal to the Bosnian state, usually but not always Bosniaks; those loyal to Republika Srpska (RS), usually Serbs; and those desirous of Croat self-government, usually Croats. Giving the Croats what they want, their own entity to make a three-entity Bosnia, is absolutely rejected by Bosniaks. Building virtual representative units for the three communities, possibly with new emphasis on municipalities as basic building blocks, is intellectually plausible but requires a leap of faith few seem ready to take. A purely civic state is inconceivable to Serbs and Croats.
Neither leaders nor civil society have deeply explored alternatives to three constituent peoples in two entities; any consensus would take time. Nevertheless, the goal should be clear. The head of state should reflect Bosnia’s diversity, something a collective does better than an individual. The same body could be the executive government. Some decisions should require consensus, others a majority. All three communities should be represented, not necessarily in equal numbers. There should be no ethnic quotas; representation should reflect self-defined regions and all their voters. Poorly performing, unnecessary state agencies and ministries should be slimmed or abolished, with powers reverting to the entities; but the state would need new ministries and agencies required for EU membership. The ten cantons in the larger of BiH’s two entities, the Federation (FBiH), are an underperforming, superfluous layer. They could be abolished, their powers divided between the municipalities and the entity government...
Recommendations
To the government of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and the Republika Srpska (RS):
1. Initiate a debate on fundamental reform.
2. Study elimination of the ten FBiH cantons and transfer of their responsibilities and revenue to municipalities and entity or state governments.
3. Set up, where possible, administrative districts for courts and police that match the boundaries of municipalities...
To the EU:
9. Welcome an immediate membership application, with a view to opening negotiations at the earliest practical date.
10. Support the reform effort by offering expertise on European models of federalism and Community participation in states with multiple language areas.
To the members of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC),
in particular the EU and U.S.:
11. Treat Bosnia as a normal country by closing the Office of the High Representative, dissolving the PIC and sponsoring a UN Security Council resolution welcoming these steps.
This paradox torments Bosnia: if its citizens are equal as individuals, then its three
peoples are unequal, since some are much larger than others and have more political
power. If its peoples are equal, then its citizens are not, since members of the smaller
peoples have votes that weigh more heavily than those of the larger community.
Measures to secure equality at the group level undermine those to protect it at the
individual level and vice versa.
A Three-Entity Bosnia
If Bosnians are unsatisfied with muddling through, they must cut the Gordian knot of their constitution. One way would be to give the Croats the entity they want. The FBiH would be split into two entities, with a Bosniak and Croat majority respectively. To avoid “third entity” language toxic for Bosniaks, a federal district around Sarajevo could be added as a fourth entity. The RS could remain as it is, since a large majority of its residents support its continued existence. That option was explored in the 2008 initiative, and it may return in the future. Croat leaders insist that any new dispensation must include control of their own middle level of government, with executive, legislative and judicial branches. There is nothing inherently wrong with a Croat entity..
